Oregon, Ten Years and One Term
Nine ways to judge a governor, measured on the official series, for Oregon 2016 to 2022 and for Tina Kotek's term.
The Short Version
Oregon's economy, job market, population, and house prices all grew more slowly during Kotek's term than in the seven years before it, and unemployment moved above the national rate. Violent crime and overdose deaths came down from recent peaks, property crime reached a decade low, graduation kept rising, and test scores stayed below where they were before the pandemic. Roads and bridges changed little. State spending and reserves both grew.
Brown and Kotek, Side by Side
Economic Growth
What changed
Oregon grew faster than the country in four of the seven years before 2023 (2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020, a year both shrank) and slower than the country in all three Kotek years. Job growth, population growth, and house-price growth slowed at the same time. Unemployment averaged lower in her term, but the state has run above the US rate every year since 2022, 5.2% against 4.3% in 2025. Income per person kept pace with the country.
What the governor did
Her economic actions are mostly land-use and housing: the 36,000-homes-a-year order, the 2023 and 2026 housing packages, the Housing Accountability and Production Office. She signed the 2025-27 budget and the transportation package later repealed by voters. She did not change the state's income-tax structure.
Table view: GDP, unemployment, jobs, population
| Year | GDP OR % | GDP US % | Unemp. OR | Unemp. US | Jobs OR % | Jobs US % | Pop OR % | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.86 | +51,130 |
| 2017 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.32 | +37,826 |
| 2018 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.87 | +26,053 |
| 2019 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.78 | +24,649 |
| 2020 | -1.3 | -2.1 | 7.6 | 8.1 | -6.3 | -5.8 | 0.60 | +21,128 |
| 2021 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.31 | +9,670 |
| 2022 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.3 | -0.21 | -8,946 |
| 2023 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 0.10 | -7,370 |
| 2024 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.35 | -1,736 |
| 2025 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 0.19 | +2,228 |
Crime and Public Safety
What changed
Violent crime rose through the pandemic years to a 2022 peak and has eased a little since; it is still above every year from 2016 to 2020. Property crime fell to the lowest point in the series in 2024. Overdose deaths peaked in 2023 at 1,851 (43.5 per 100,000 people, against 31.7 nationally), fell 17% in 2024, and the provisional 2025 count is lower again. Oregon's overdose rate was below the national rate every year through 2021, level with it in 2022, and above it from 2023 on. Oregon's violent-crime rate was below the national rate every year of the decade; its property-crime rate was above it.
What the governor did
She signed HB 4002 on April 1, 2024, which ended Measure 110's decriminalization; its treatment provisions took effect on signature and its possession penalties on September 1, 2024. The Secretary of State audited the Measure 110 grant program three times during her term.
Table view: rates and overdose counts
| Year | Violent OR | Violent US | Property OR | Property US | Overdose OR | Overdose US | OR per 100k | US per 100k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 268.8 | 397.5 | 2,978.9 | 2,451.6 | 496 | 63,938 | 12.1 | 19.7 |
| 2017 | 281.8 | 394.0 | 2,986.5 | 2,362.2 | 534 | 70,699 | 12.9 | 21.6 |
| 2018 | 285.5 | 380.6 | 2,894.0 | 2,199.5 | 556 | 67,850 | 13.3 | 20.6 |
| 2019 | 284.4 | 364.4 | 2,730.6 | 2,132.2 | 610 | 71,130 | 14.5 | 21.5 |
| 2020 | 291.9 | 386.3 | 2,659.0 | 1,966.9 | 797 | 92,478 | 18.8 | 27.9 |
| 2021 | 341.3 | 360.9 | 2,690.9 | 1,792.8 | 1,181 | 107,573 | 27.8 | 32.4 |
| 2022 | 342.4 | 377.1 | 2,935.2 | 1,973.8 | 1,387 | 109,413 | 32.7 | 32.7 |
| 2023 | 332.0 | 379.5 | 2,601.9 | 1,934.1 | 1,851 | 106,881 | 43.5 | 31.7 |
| 2024 | 331.0 | 359.1 | 2,388.0 | 1,760.1 | 1,529 | 80,860 | 35.8 | 23.8 |
| 2025 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | ~1,107 prov. | 70,637 prov. | 25.9 | 20.7 |
Education Results
What changed
Two series point opposite ways. The graduation rate rose in seven of the nine years shown, fell once (2020-21), held once (2022-23), and reached a record 83% for the class of 2025. Test scores dropped across the pandemic and have not come back: state proficiency is about ten points below 2016 to 2019 in both subjects, and Oregon went from above the national NAEP average in both grade-8 subjects in 2015 to below it in all four subjects in 2024. About a third of students were chronically absent in 2024-25.
What the governor did
Signed the Early Literacy Success Initiative (HB 3198, 2023) and the 2025 accountability package alongside the $11.4B State School Fund.
Table view: NAEP and ODE series
| Year | G4 math | G8 math | G4 reading | G8 reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 237.7 / 239.9 | 282.8 / 281.3 | 220.2 / 221.4 | 267.7 / 264.0 |
| 2017 | 233.1 / 239.2 | 282.2 / 282.0 | 217.5 / 220.8 | 266.2 / 265.3 |
| 2019 | 236.3 / 240.0 | 279.5 / 281.0 | 217.7 / 219.4 | 263.7 / 262.0 |
| 2022 | 228.2 / 234.9 | 270.3 / 273.1 | 210.3 / 216.1 | 257.1 / 259.1 |
| 2024 | 228.7 / 237.3 | 267.9 / 272.2 | 207.0 / 214.3 | 254.8 / 256.7 |
| Class / year | Grad rate | ELA | Math |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | 74.8 | 55.2 | 41.5 |
| 2016-17 | 76.7 | 53.6 | 40.8 |
| 2017-18 | 78.7 | 54.9 | 40.5 |
| 2018-19 | 80.0 | 53.4 | 39.4 |
| 2019-20 | 82.6 | no test | no test |
| 2020-21 | 80.6 | not published | not published |
| 2021-22 | 81.3 | 43.6 | 30.4 |
| 2022-23 | 81.3 | 43.0 | 30.6 |
| 2023-24 | 81.8 | 42.5 | 31.0 |
| 2024-25 | 83.0 | 43.0 | 31.5 |
Infrastructure Quality
What changed
Bridges held in a 4.6 to 5.2% poor band all decade while the national share improved. Pavement rated good fell from 67% to 57%, the lowest since 2001, and ODOT expects 82% fair-or-better by the end of the current construction program at present funding. ASCE gave the state a C- in 2019 and again in 2024; the Reason Foundation ranked Oregon's highways 35th on 2022 data and 33rd on 2023 data.
What the governor did
ODOT's own internal audit found in 2024 that it had overstated revenue by about $1.1B. The 2025 package (HB 2025) failed in the regular session; she called a special session, HB 3991 passed, she signed it on November 7, 2025, then asked in January 2026 for its repeal. Voters repealed it on May 19, 2026, by 83.0% to 17.0% (certified June 25). The 2026 session closed a $297M ODOT gap with cuts and redirected funds.
Table view: bridges and pavement
| Year | OR bridges poor % | US poor % | Pavement good % | Fair or better % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 67 | 88 |
| 2017 | 5.1 | 7.7 | ||
| 2018 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 65 | 90 |
| 2019 | 5.2 | 7.5 | ||
| 2020 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 62 | 89 |
| 2021 | 4.6 | 7.0 | ||
| 2022 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 58 | 88 |
| 2023 | 4.8 | 6.8 | ||
| 2024 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 57 | 87 |
| 2025 | 5.1 | 6.7 |
Budget Policy
What changed
The General Fund and Lottery budget doubled in ten years. LFO measures her first budget as 17.2% larger than the prior approved one, the biggest step in its table, and the 2025-27 budget as 11.7% larger. Reserves ended 2023-25 at 10.7% of revenue, the highest point in the years OEA publishes. The state's credit rating (Aa1 / AA+ / AA+) did not move under either governor.
What the governor did
Proposed and signed the 2023-25 and 2025-27 budgets, and signed the bills that suspended and then cancelled the automatic Rainy Day Fund transfer.
Table view: budgets, reserves, kickers, and workforce by biennium
| Biennium | GF + Lottery | Total funds | Reserves at end | Kicker (tax year credited) | State FTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-17 | $18.90B | $68.98B | not in OEA table | $464M (2016) | 38,615 |
| 2017-19 | $20.93B | $74.39B | not in OEA table | $1,688M (2018) | 39,464 |
| 2019-21 | $23.7B | $85.8B | $400M ESF drawn for COVID | $1,898M (2020) | 41,460 |
| 2021-23 | $26.8B | $112.8B | $2.06B (6.7%) | $5,619M (2022) | 44,582 |
| 2023-25 | $33.49B | $121.26B | $2.92B (10.7%) | $1,410M (2024) | 47,228 |
| 2025-27 | $39.1B | $138.9B | $3.41B projected (9.7%) | not triggered | 48,916 |
Management
What changed
The state workforce in the adopted budget grew from 38,615 FTE (2015-17) to 48,916 (2025-27), up 27%. Audits during the Brown years found a child-welfare system missing required monthly contact with about 700 children (2018), an unemployment system that took more than a year to decide over a thousand pandemic claims (audited 2022), and a $426M rental-assistance program with a 30% error rate in the sample, the first adverse opinion the audits division had issued in 25 years (2024). Audits during the Kotek years found Measure 110 grants slow to spend and then unstable under "frequent policy changes" (2023 to 2025), a behavioral-health crisis system with 23 years of data gaps (2025), a Youth Authority with more than 3,000 abuse reports not properly investigated (2025), and crumbling corrections facilities (2026).
What the governor did
She replaced the heads of the liquor commission, the Lottery, emergency management, the teacher standards commission, forestry, the Youth Authority, the State Hospital, and public defense between 2023 and April 2025, and several others resigned. Press accounts describe Brown as removing two major agency heads in her first two years.
Corruption and Ethics
| Date | Matter | Governor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2018 | Kitzhaber and Hayes (resigned Feb 2015): OGEC case | Brown era | 10 violations, $20,000 penalty; Hayes 22 violations; federal criminal probe closed without charges |
| Feb 2023 | OLCC bourbon diversion, six senior staff | Kotek, month one | She forced the director out and asked the AG for an independent investigation; DOJ closed it without charges in 2024; OGEC fined the former director $1,500 (Jun 2025) |
| May 2023 | Secretary of State Fagan's $10,000-a-month La Mota contract while her office audited OLCC | separate office | Fagan resigned; OGEC fine $3,600 (May 2025); federal probe closed |
| Mar to Jun 2024 | First spouse's role in the office; three senior staff departed | Kotek | Public apology and plan withdrawn May 1; OGEC deadlocked 4 to 4 on Jun 28 and dismissed the complaints without a full investigation; July advisory said volunteering is lawful absent financial gain; "First Partner Handbook" issued Sep 2024 |
| Jan to May 2025 | State Auditor referral: governor's-office spending (parking, a $9,330 staff barbecue, event tickets) | Kotek | OGEC voted in January to gather more information and ended the review in May 2025, concluding the statute at issue applies to individuals rather than public bodies, with an advisory response to follow |
What changed
No criminal case was brought against a governor's office in the decade, and no OGEC case was brought against Brown's office. The Kotek years carry two matters about her own office (one deadlocked, one closed) and two she handled about others.
Legislative Record
What changed
Fewer measures reached her desk per long session than Brown's, and she vetoed more: seven in 2025, the most of any session in the decade. The Senate voted to override one of them; the House did not take it up, so it stands. She called two special sessions (wildfire costs 2024, transportation 2025) to Brown's six. Republican walkouts shaped both records: Brown lost the 2020 short session to one (three bills passed), and the 2023 walkout ran 44 days, the longest on record, ending with a narrowed abortion bill, a narrowed gun bill, and ten senators disqualified under Measure 113.
What the governor did
Brown's signature laws: the statewide rent cap (SB 608, 2019), the Student Success Act and its corporate activity tax (HB 3427, 2019), and the end of single-family-only zoning (HB 2001, 2019). Kotek's: the 2023 housing package (HB 2001, 2023), recriminalization with treatment funding (HB 4002, 2024), the 2025 education accountability package, and HB 3991, which she called the session for, signed, asked to repeal, and watched voters repeal 83.0% to 17.0%.
Table view: session by session
| Session | Governor | Passed | Full vetoes | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 regular | Brown | 749 | 2 | 2 line items |
| 2018 short + special | Brown | 122 + 1 | 0 | pass-through tax bill |
| 2019 regular | Brown | 701 | 0 | two walkouts; cap-and-trade died |
| 2020 short + 3 specials | Brown | 3 + about 14 + 2 + relief | 0 | walkout ended the short session; COVID, police reform, wildfire relief |
| 2021 regular + 2 specials | Brown | 683 | 3 | redistricting; rent assistance |
| 2022 short | Brown | 119 | 0 | |
| 2023 regular | Kotek | 616 | 2 | 44-day walkout; HB 2001 housing |
| 2024 short + special | Kotek | 115 + 1 | 0 | HB 4002; $218M wildfire bill |
| 2025 regular + special | Kotek | 640 + 2 | 7 | HB 2025 failed; HB 3991 passed in special session |
| 2026 short | Kotek | 143 | 1 | HB 4177 veto; ODOT gap closed; walkout |
Approval Ratings
What changed
Both governors spent most of their terms near the bottom of the national approval table. Brown's numbers fell for six years, from 58% approve in early 2017 to 35% at the end of 2022, when she was the least popular governor in the country. Kotek's started at 42% in early 2023, when she held that title, and have drifted up to 48% approve and 42% disapprove in early 2026; a June 2026 internal poll for her opponent has her at 38 / 57.
What the governor did
Brown won 50.7% in 2016 and 50.1% in 2018. Kotek won 47.0% in 2022, 3.5 points over Christine Drazan, and faces her again on November 3, 2026; Cook rates the race "Likely D" and Inside Elections "Lean D".